EC102 Agricultural Economics Essay 3 Sample

EC102 Agricultural Economics

Assignment Details

Assessment-3 consists of one research essay topic.

The essay topic:

The impact, mechanics and the effectiveness of the RBA’s monetary policy decision on Australian agriculture.

Questions to be addressed in your essay:

Question 1:

Describe monetary policy and its intended objectives. Discuss the functions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

As a minimum, students should:

• Define monetary policy.

• Intended objectives of MP.

• Discuss the functions of the RBA.

Question 2:

At the 2 nd May 2023 meeting, the RBA Board decided to increase the cash rate target to 3.85 per cent. In the past, the Board had changed the cash rate. Using money market equilibrium model and the transmission mechanism, illustrate and explain how a change in cash rate might help to control inflation or stimulate the economy and specifically on Australian agriculture. Describe the circumstances in which the Board might increase and decrease the cash rate.

As a minimum, students should:

• Explain the cash rate.

• Illustrate and describe the effects of cash rate changes on the money market equilibrium.

• Describe the open market operations of RBA and the transmission mechanism and the process of controlling the inflation rate or stimulating the economy, Australian agriculture and AD.

• Discuss the nature/direction of cash rate change during recessions and high inflation situations.

Question 3:

Discuss the main factors, including the current inflation rate that influenced the RBA Board’s May decision to increase the case rate. Comment on the trends in key macroeconomic indicators mentioned in this media release. Using diagrams/graphs, support the arguments put forward by the RBA monetary policy decision.

As a minimum, students should:

• Discuss the key macroeconomic indicators highlighting the current and recent trends in GDP, inflation rate, economic growth rate, unemployment rate, etc. and supported by at least 2 diagrams showing trends of any 2 indicators.

Question 4:

Discuss the impacts of changing the cash rate on Australian agriculture.

As a minimum, students should:

• Discuss the recent agriculture conditions in Australia

• Explain how changes to cash rate will impact on the demand and supply of Australian agriculture at the domestic and international level.

Question 5:

Discuss the limitations to conventional monetary policy and its implementation.

As a minimum, students should:

• Discuss the limitations of monetary policy.

Presentation:

As a minimum, students should:

• Structure the essay in a logical manner and provide clear explanations.

• Include an Introductory paragraph (describing the aim and the outline of the essay, etc.)

• Include a concluding paragraph.

• Include in-text references.

• Include a Reference list (alphabetically ordered with APA style)

• provide relevant information, use table, diagrams where appropriate by using multiple research sources.

Solutions

1. Introduction

Implementing monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) through diverse tools is paramount in influencing a nation's economy. The cash rate is a pivotal instrument that exerts a substantial influence on the equilibrium of the money market. The present study delves into the notion of monetary policy, the roles and responsibilities of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the characteristics of the cash rate. The report delves into the transmission mechanism, the techniques employed to regulate inflation or invigorate the economy, and the correlation between fluctuations in the cash rate and the agricultural sector in Australia. Comprehending these dynamics is necessary in scrutinising the present inflation rate and its ramifications on the agricultural industry.

2. Concept of Monetary Policy

2.1 Definition of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy is a nation's central bank's actions and techniques to manage and control the money supply and interest rates. The fundamental goal is to influence inflation, employment, and economic growth to achieve macroeconomic stability (Bernanke, 2020). The economy is often steered using instruments like interest rate changes and open market activities.

2.2 Intended Objective of Monetary Policy

Maintaining price stability, fostering economic growth, and ensuring financial stability within a nation are the intended objectives of monetary policy. Having low and predictable inflation is what economists mean when they talk about price stability (Bernanke, 2020). This is essential because excessive inflation destroys consumer confidence and reduces their ability to save. Interest rates and money supply are managed to promote investment, consumption, and general economic activity. Monetary policy balances promoting investment and limiting inflationary pressures by adjusting borrowing costs.

Furthermore, monetary policy aims to ensure financial stability by monitoring and managing risks in the banking and bank sectors, supporting a sound and robust bank system (Bernanke, 2020). Central banks may also have supplementary objectives like employment targets or currency rate stability depending on the country's conditions and ambitions. Monetary policy's end goal is to foster conditions favourable to long-term economic growth, stability, and the general prosperity of the people for MBA assignment expert.

2.3 Discussion on the Functions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

In Australia, monetary policy is created and put into effect by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has a significant role to play. Its duties include promoting economic growth and price stability while protecting the financial system from instability (Parsons, 2022). The RBA establishes the official cash rate, or the interest rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend funds to one another. By altering this rate, the RBA affects borrowing costs throughout the economy, affecting consumer spending, corporate investment, and economic activity in general (Guttmann, 2022). Keeping inflation under control and bolstering economic growth is the goal of this instrument.

The RBA also engages in open market activities, which include purchasing and selling government assets to affect the money supply in the banking system. The RBA may affect short-term interest rates and regulate the money supply by infusing or draining liquidity into the economy via bond purchases or sales (Debelle, 2020). The RBA also regulates the exchange rate in the foreign currency markets. If it is judged important for economic stability or to promote the export industry, it may act to stabilise the Australian dollar.

To guarantee the financial stability and soundness of the banking and financial industry, the RBA, as the central bank, oversees and regulates it. It monitors financial institutions, puts prudential norms into place, and offers aid with emergency liquidity as necessary (Leung, 2020). The financial system's stability and public trust in the banking system are both bolstered by this role. Moreover, the RBA conducts research and analysis to comprehend financial circumstances, inflation dynamics, and economic developments. It disseminates information to the public, policymakers, and financial institutions through reports and economic indicators (Finlay et al. 2022).

3. Concept of Cash Rate

3.1 Definition of Cash Rate

Commercial banks' borrowing costs are affected by the cash rate, which is the interest rate established by a country's central bank, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia. In its role as a reference point for other interest rates and as an important factor in the execution of monetary policy, it has far-reaching effects on the economy as a whole (Holland et al. 2020).

3.2 Effects of Cash Rate on Money Market Equilibrium

The cash market rate has a big impact on the money market equilibrium. Commercial banks are encouraged to borrow more funds at a cheaper cost when the central bank lowers the cash rate (Itskhoki & Mukhin, 2021). This encourages lending and raises the market money supply. Interest rates on loans and other financial instruments fall, encouraging borrowing and investment. However, when the central bank raises the cash rate, it increases the cost of borrowing money for commercial banks, decreasing the money supply (Dornbusch, 2019). Consequently, the equilibrium of the money market is disrupted since higher interest rates tend to discourage borrowing and investment.

3.3 RBA's Open Market Operations and Economic Impact

3.3.1 Transmission Mechanism

The transmission of monetary policy means how adjustments to the Reserve Bank's monetary policy settings affect economic activity and inflation. Because of the complexity of this process, it is difficult to predict when or how much this will affect the economy (Rba.gov.au, 2023d). The transmission process may be broken down into two steps. In this first transmission stage, they focus on how changes to these instruments' settings affect the economy's interest rates. The cash rate strongly affects other interest rates, including deposit and lending rates for families and companies, since it is the market interest rate for overnight loans between financial institutions. Modifications to monetary policy have an impact on economic activity and inflation, which leads them to the second stage of transmission (Rba.gov.au, 2023d). The four channels via monetary policy transmitted are the savings and investments channels, cash flow channels, asset prices and wealth channels, and exchange rate channels.

3.3.2 Process of Controlling Inflation or Stimulating the Economy

The Reserve Bank manages Australia's monetary policy. The interest rate on overnight loans in the money market is determined as part of monetary policy (sometimes known as the "cash rate"). The Reserve Bank has implemented extensive monetary policy initiatives since 2020 to reduce financing costs and strengthen the supply of credit to the economy (Rba.gov.au, 2023a). These policies influence borrower and lender conduct, economic activity, and inflation rate. The Bank must act in the Australian people's best interests when making monetary policy decisions. This includes promoting price stability, full employment, and economic growth and prosperity. The Bank's "inflation target" is to manage consumer price inflation in the economy at 2% to 3% on average over the medium term to fulfil these statutory objectives (Rba.gov.au, 2023a). Maintaining the value of money and promoting long-term, robust economic growth are benefits of controlling inflation.

3.3.3 Discussion on Australian Agriculture and AD

Annual reports and an interactive data dashboard on the number of loans to the agricultural industry are prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) (Agriculture.gov.au, 2023). The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) collects data for the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry and uses that information to compile reports. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Regional Investment Corporation (RIC), and ABARES farm surveys are only some data sources that ABARES analyses. In 2016, the Australian government passed a law requiring banks and other institutional lenders to compile and publish yearly information on their lending to the agricultural industry (DAWE, 2021). Major lenders to farm businesses must submit annual statistics to APRA under the Financial Sector (Collection of Data) (reporting standard) determination No 18 of 2017 (DAWE, 2021).. APRA will then compile and process the data before sending it to the Department of Agriculture, Water, and the Environment (DAWE) for further analysis and reporting.

3.4 Nature of Cash Rate

3.4.1 During Recession

The economy's production tends to rise as time goes on. However, the economic growth rate is not constant, creating a 'business cycle' of peaks and valleys (Rba.gov.au, 2023b). Production growth may be low or even negative at the trough of an economic cycle. Consequently, many people lose their jobs, and the unemployment rate rises. While there isn't a set definition of recession, most people believe it's when production drops and the unemployment rate rises sharply. The Fair Work Commission boosted minimum award pay by 5.75 per cent from July 1 (Gould, 2023). Mr Aird argued a reference to "upside risks" in Dr Lowe's speech gave the impression the central bank hiked the cash rate in reaction to this decision (Gould, 2023). Figure 1 states the cash rate of Australia.

Figure 1: Cash Rate of Australia
(Source: Gould, 2023)

3.4.2 High Inflation Situations

To keep inflation in line with the target, monetary policy is utilised to either slow or speed up economic activity (Rba.gov.au, 2023b). The Reserve Bank often tightens monetary policy, such as raising the cash rate, if inflation is likely higher than the target for an extended time. The Reserve Bank will generally ease monetary policy by reducing the cash rate if inflation expectations are consistently lower than the target. Changes in monetary policy may not immediately impact the economy. Because of this, the Reserve Bank has always considered inflation projections while making current monetary policy decisions (Rba.gov.au, 2023b). But in recent years, the Reserve Bank has said it would pay more attention to actual inflation outcomes than its inflation estimates when considering whether or not to change the cash rate.

4. Discussion on Current Inflation Rate

The May 2023 increase in the cash rate by the RBA Board was determined by multiple factors, one of which was the prevailing inflation rate. Per the official media release of the Reserve Bank of Australia in May 2023, the Board has decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.00%. This decision has been made in response to the emergence of inflationary pressures. The decision was made to control inflation and promote long-term economic development effectively (Rba.gov.au, 2023e).

The decision made by the Reserve Bank of Australia was motivated by apprehensions regarding the escalation of inflationary forces within the Australian economic landscape. As per the official statement released by the Board, it was observed that the inflation rate had been experiencing a gradual upward trend and is anticipated to persist in the immediate future. If not properly addressed, elevated inflation rates have the potential to undermine the buying power of both individuals and enterprises, thereby contributing to economic volatility (Treasury.act.gov.au, 2023).

The augmentation of the cash rate was additionally impacted by the Reserve Bank of Australia's objective of upholding price stability. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has established a 2-3% target inflation range. The recent increase in inflation levels has presented a potential obstacle to attaining this objective. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) endeavours to implement a contractionary monetary policy by increasing the cash rate. This approach can effectively mitigate inflationary tendencies by limiting the overall demand and curbing expenditure (Theguardian.com, 2023). Moreover, it is probable that the RBA's evaluation of other economic indicators, such as substantial employment expansion and resilient economic activity, impacted the decision. The confluence of these factors, in conjunction with the ascending trajectory of inflation, prompted the RBA to determine that a preemptive strategy was imperative to maintain the economy's viability in terms of growth (Treasury.act.gov.au, 2023).

4.1 Trends in Macroeconomic Indicators

4.1.1 GDP Trend

Figure 2: Quarterly GDP Trend in Australia
(Source: Tradingeconomics.com, 2023)

As highlighted in Figure 2, in Q1 of 2023, the Australian economy experienced a quarter-on-quarter expansion of 0.2%, which fell short of the market's anticipated 0.3% growth. This followed a 0.6% increase in Q4, which was revised upward. The current period of economic growth marks the sixth consecutive instance of such growth, albeit at a slower pace than previous periods (Tradingeconomics.com, 2023). This is attributed to a relatively lower increase in household consumption, which rose by 0.2% in the current quarter as opposed to 0.3% in the previous quarter. This was attributed to persistent cost pressures and high-interest rates (Data.worldbank.org, 2023).

Figure 3: Annual GDP Trend in Australia
(Source: Data.worldbank.org, 2023)

4.1.2 Unemployment Rate

Figure 4: Unemployment Trend
(Source: Abs.gov.au, 2023)

As per the media release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in May 2023, Australia's unemployment rate has declined and currently stands at 3.6% (Abs.gov.au, 2023). The observation denotes a favourable trajectory in the employment sector, characterised by a reduced rate of unemployment (Figure 4).

Figure 5: Employment and Hours Trend
(Source: Abs.gov.au, 2023)

According to the data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's unemployment rate has consistently declined, indicating a robust job market (Figure 4 & 5). The decrease in unemployment is a positive indication for the economy, suggesting enhanced employment prospects and heightened labour force engagement (Abs.gov.au, 2023). A decreased unemployment rate indicates that a greater percentage of the working-age population is either employed or actively seeking employment. The proposition posits that enterprises are expanding and generating additional employment prospects, resulting in a decline in the number of unemployed individuals (Abs.gov.au, 2023).

5. Discussion on Impacts of Changing Cash Rate on Australian Agriculture

5.1 Recent Agriculture Conditions in Australia

According to projections, the anticipated gross value of agricultural production in Australia is expected to experience a decline of 14% by the year 2023-24, ultimately reaching a total of $79 billion. The decline in crop yields is primarily ascribed to the arid climatic circumstances expected to occur due to the likelihood of El Niño and/or a favourable Indian Ocean Dipole (Agriculture.gov.au, 2023). Furthermore, it is anticipated that the decline in global prices following a period of elevated levels will reduce the prices received by domestic producers for most commodities (Rba.gov.au, 2023e).

However, due to the anticipated decline, the agricultural sector in Australia has encountered a sequence of three successive years of exceptional weather patterns, leading to elevated crop productivity and sturdy pasture expansion. During 2022-23, there was a notable surge in agricultural production, largely attributed to the exceptional crop yields (Rba.gov.au, 2023f). The projected crop production for the year 2023-24 is anticipated to experience a reduction of 18% in comparison to the previous year's record levels. This decrease will be accompanied by a 22% decline in the gross value of crop production. Despite this decline, the gross value of crop production is still expected to remain above average (Agriculture.gov.au, 2023a).

Figure 6: Farm Production Trend
(Source: Agriculture.gov.au, 2023a)

Reductions in the prices of wheat, canola, barley, pulses, sorghum, sugar, and cotton predominantly propel the devaluation. The declines are mitigated by upswings in cultivating agricultural products and wine grapes. The agricultural sector is anticipated to attain an unprecedented value of $18 billion, primarily due to the robust expansion of nut production and the escalating demand for domestic fruits and vegetables. It is anticipated that the wine grape production's worth will escalate due to arid climatic conditions, leading to a decline in the prevalence of diseases and eventually surpassing the $1 billion mark (Treasury.act.gov.au, 2023).

5.2 Impact of Cash Rate Changes in Australia

5.2.1 Demand and Supply of Domestic Agriculture

The fluctuations in the cash rate in Australia significantly impact the demand and supply of domestic agriculture. Reducing cash rates leads to lower interest rates, increasing farmers' borrowing affordability. This stimulates investment and expansion in the agricultural sector. This phenomenon has the potential to enhance both production and supply. Decreased interest rates have the potential to stimulate consumer spending, thereby resulting in a surge in demand for agricultural commodities (Rba.gov.au, 2023e). Modifications to the cash rate have the potential to impact exchange rates, which may boost export competitiveness and a rise in the demand for agricultural products within the domestic market. Nevertheless, alterations in the cash rate may also impact input expenses and profitability. It is imperative to consider various factors, including global market conditions, weather patterns, and governmental policies, which may interact with cash rate fluctuations to influence the agricultural industry's reaction (Agriculture.gov.au, 2023a).

5.2.2 Demand and Supply of International Agriculture

Changes in the cash rate within Australia significantly impact the supply and demand of global agriculture. The depreciation of the Australian dollar resulting from lower interest rates enhances the affordability of Australian agricultural products in global markets (Agriculture.gov.au, 2023a). The action serves to augment the export competitiveness of Australian agricultural products, thereby stimulating a surge in their global demand and ultimately leading to an expansion in the supply of international agriculture. Modifications in the cash rate can potentially impact the borrowing expenses of global agricultural enterprises, thereby exerting an influence on their output and provision (Komarek et al. 2020).

Furthermore, changes in the cash rates have the potential to strengthen economic expansion and consumer expenditure within Australia, thereby amplifying the import requirement for agricultural commodities from foreign nations and influencing the worldwide supply and prices (Stamoulis & Rausser, 2019). The cash rate modifications can impact the competitiveness of agricultural exporting nations, which may affect market share and supply dynamics. The demand and supply of international agriculture are influenced by various factors, including but not limited to exchange rates, global economic conditions, trade policies, and consumer preferences. These factors interact with changes in cash rates to shape the overall market conditions (Komarek et al. 2020).

6. Limitations Of Conventional Monetary Policy

Like other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) uses traditional monetary policy instruments to steer the Australian economy. However, these methods do have certain restrictions that might reduce their efficiency (Parsons, 2022). The zero lower bound on interest rates is a significant restriction. The RBA's capacity to boost the economy through rate reduction is constrained when interest rates approach zero. Because of this, traditional monetary policy is less successful during extreme economic downturns or deflationary pressures.

The transmission of monetary policy is further hindered because it takes too long. Changing interest rates don't immediately affect borrowing costs, consumer spending, or business investment (Guttmann, 2022). As a result, the RBA may delay seeing the results of its monetary policy actions, making it more difficult to adapt quickly to changing economic circumstances. Credit rates and availability are also major objectives of traditional monetary policy. However, other structural difficulties in the economy, such as inefficiencies in the labour market or limits on the supply side, may remain unaddressed even though this might affect consumer and company expenditure (Debelle, 2020). Monetary policy alone may not be enough to address these underlying causes of economic difficulties.

7. Conclusion

The cash rate is a fundamental instrument in the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy arsenal, with far-reaching consequences for the economy and diverse industries, such as agriculture. Alterations in the cash rate can influence the demand and supply of both domestic and international agriculture, thereby impacting the stakeholders involved in this sector, including farmers, exporters, and global trade dynamics. Examining the prevailing inflation rate and macroeconomic indicators can offer valuable insights into the efficacy of implemented monetary policy measures. Through meticulous observation of these variables, policymakers and stakeholders can make well-informed judgements to regulate inflation, invigorate economic expansion, and guarantee the durability of the agricultural industry, thus promoting a steady and enduring economy.

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